Possible scenario
Contained Credit Scare
45% Chance
SoftBank's credit risk stabilizes as investors conclude the OpenAI commitment is large but financeable against SoftBank's liquid assets and Arm stake. OpenAI's capital raise closes close to target terms, limiting spillover beyond SoftBank bonds and AI-linked equities.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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