Possible scenario
Prolonged Policy Standoff
20% Chance
The EU may resist releasing such a large volume of strategic diesel stocks, while the White House delays an export ban because of refinery and diplomatic backlash. This leaves markets focused on falling distillate inventories and record diesel prices for at least several more sessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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