Possible scenario
Russia Adapts Defenses
25% Chance
Russia responds by reallocating air-defense assets, electronic-warfare systems, and National Guard units toward refineries and fuel depots. This reduces some vulnerability but forces trade-offs with front-line and urban air defense.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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