Possible scenario
Refinery Campaign Continues
45% Chance
Ukraine treats the Lukoil strike as part of a sustained campaign against Russian refining, storage, and drone-support infrastructure. Moscow struggles to protect dispersed energy assets across European Russia and the Volga-Urals region, keeping fuel-market risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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