Possible scenario
UN Pause Takes Hold
20% Chance
The UN, Oman, and Saudi Arabia pressure the parties to revive the road-access track that was part of the 2022 truce framework. A humanitarian pause is plausible because both sides may want to consolidate gains and avoid blame for a catastrophic siege.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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