Possible scenario
Siege Tightens Gradually
30% Chance
The Houthis consolidate the territory captured around Taiz and keep the Taiz-Aden road closed. The most likely escalation is a prolonged siege and humanitarian deterioration rather than an immediate full capture of Yemen's third-largest city.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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