Possible scenario
Inflation Reaccelerates
25% Chance
Tariff pass-through, firm wages, and energy costs push inflation expectations higher. In this scenario, Dimon's warning proves early, and markets begin pricing a non-trivial chance of another Fed hike.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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