Possible scenario
Higher-For-Longer Base
45% Chance
Sticky services inflation, wage growth, tariffs, and resilient demand keep the Federal Reserve cautious. Jamie Dimon's warning reinforces the market view that rate cuts are delayed rather than canceled, with Treasury yields staying near 2026 highs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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