Possible scenario
Disinflation Resumes
20% Chance
The inflation scare fades as wage growth moderates and supply-side pressures ease. Dimon's warning is treated as prudent caution rather than a signal of a lasting inflation breakout.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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