Supreme Court Invalidates

The circuit split makes Supreme Court review highly likely, and the Court's recent Second Amendment trajectory increases the odds of a merits ruling against the federal residency-based handgun sales restriction. The most likely pro-challenger outcome is a nationwide rule that treats the 1968 interstate handgun ban as inconsistent with Bruen's history-and-tradition test.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.