Possible scenario
US Military Response
27% Chance
Washington concludes that convoy operations alone are insufficient and authorizes limited strikes against IRGC coastal missile, drone, or radar positions. The key uncertainty is whether Iran absorbs the blow or retaliates directly against US assets and Gulf infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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