Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
20% Chance
Regional mediators press Iran and the United States into a temporary maritime stand-down to prevent a wider war. Tehran may claim deterrence has been achieved while allowing limited tanker movements to resume under monitoring.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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