Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Harassment
38% Chance
Iran continues calibrated attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz but stops short of formally closing the waterway. Gulf shipping slows, insurers raise war-risk premiums, and US-led naval escorts reduce the probability of mass casualties or a total traffic halt.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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