Possible scenario
Protracted Hormuz Standoff
38% Chance
Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz pressure campaign tied to oil-export and sanctions concessions rather than the US nuclear roadmap. Washington avoids immediate major strikes but expands naval escorts and sanctions enforcement while Qatar and Oman try to prevent further tanker attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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