Possible scenario
Maritime De-Escalation Deal
22% Chance
Iran's rejection of a nuclear-first approach leads mediators to separate maritime security from the enrichment dispute. A limited oil-export and shipping arrangement becomes more plausible if Washington accepts phased concessions outside the nuclear file.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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