Possible scenario
Limited Military Escalation
27% Chance
The rejection of a nuclear-first framework leaves Washington with fewer diplomatic tools, raising the odds of limited military action to protect shipping. Both sides try to keep the confrontation below full war, but tactical incidents become more likely.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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