Possible scenario
Baltic Airspace Disruptions
30% Chance
Russia continues routing drones close to or through Baltic airspace, forcing temporary flight restrictions and repeated NATO alerts. The situation remains below the threshold of open conflict but carries higher operational risk for civil aviation and regional logistics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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