Possible scenario
Crackdown Deepens
25% Chance
Lebanese authorities use the public justification by Hezbollah as grounds to broaden the investigation into the Dahiyeh-linked official and suspected logistics network. Hezbollah resists rhetorically but stops short of armed confrontation because it wants to avoid appearing responsible for breaking the renewed cease-fire.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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