Possible scenario
Ceasefire Strain
18% Chance
Israel treats Hezbollah's justification as evidence that the group is preserving an operational weapons network despite the renewed cease-fire terms. The issue moves from a Lebanese criminal probe into the Israel-Lebanon cease-fire mechanism, increasing the risk of limited military signaling.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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