Possible scenario
Reflection gains traction
38% Chance
Reflection's 501B-parameter model proves credible against DeepSeek on benchmarks, safety tooling and US enterprise availability. Developers and corporate buyers value a US-based open-weight alternative, especially where data governance or China exposure is a procurement concern.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.3%
- Business Services +0.4%
Tickers
- NVDA+1.9%
- MSFT+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.