Possible scenario
Cost gap persists
27% Chance
Reflection's launch highlights US progress but also reinforces that DeepSeek's cost discipline remains difficult to replicate. Investors focus on whether large US models still require expensive GPU clusters while Chinese competitors extract more performance from constrained hardware.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Business Services -0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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