Possible scenario
Stabilization Program Holds
42% Chance
President Rodrigo Paz uses the IMF approval to anchor a gradual stabilization plan, combining reserve rebuilding, fiscal restraint, and targeted subsidy changes. The program remains politically difficult but benefits from the government’s pro-market mandate and the need to restore access to external financing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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