Possible scenario
Partial Compliance Muddle
28% Chance
Bolivia broadly stays inside the IMF framework but struggles to deliver all spending, exchange-rate, and reserve commitments on time. The Fund grants flexibility to prevent a relapse into crisis, but investors price in higher execution risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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