Possible scenario
Austerity Backlash Builds
16% Chance
Fuel prices, public-sector wage restraint, and subsidy cuts trigger organized resistance from unions, transport groups, and opposition blocs. The government remains in office, but the political cost of IMF compliance rises sharply.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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