Possible scenario
Downgrade Risk Eases
45% Chance
Indonesia's exchange and regulators convince investors that the concentration problem is being addressed quickly enough to avoid an MSCI downgrade. The Jakarta Composite extends its rebound as foreign funds selectively return to banks, telecoms and large liquid blue chips.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Telecommunications +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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