Possible scenario
Moody Holds Florida
50% Chance
Ashley Moody remains the favorite despite Angie Nixon's Q3 fundraising advantage because Florida's electorate still leans Republican in federal races. GOP donors, the NRSC, and allied super PACs are likely to treat the $1.8 million gap as a warning rather than evidence that the seat is slipping away.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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