Possible scenario
MOAB Strike Executed
20% Chance
The White House authorizes the first U.S. MOAB use against Iranian energy-linked infrastructure. This would mark a major escalation, raising the risk of Iranian retaliation against Gulf shipping, U.S. bases, and Israeli targets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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