Possible scenario
Limited Strike Substitution
27% Chance
The Pentagon retains the MOAB contingency but recommends lower-risk stand-off strikes instead. This allows the U.S. to hit Iranian energy-linked military nodes without the political shock of using the largest conventional bomb in the arsenal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.