Possible scenario
Deterrent Planning Pause
38% Chance
The draft plans remain a coercive signal rather than an operational order. Washington uses the leak to pressure Tehran after the sanctions reversal, while keeping Gulf allies and Congress aligned against an immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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