Possible scenario
Sanctions Escalation Cycle
25% Chance
The Trump administration answers the alliance with broader secondary sanctions, targeting banks, insurers, shippers and oil facilitators linked to Iran-Russia trade. Moscow refuses to cooperate with Washington on Iran, and the sanctions contest becomes the main arena of escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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