Possible scenario
Proxy Escalation Risk
20% Chance
The alliance emboldens Iranian-backed groups or leads Washington to interpret regional incidents as coordinated with Moscow and Tehran. The most likely versions remain limited, but the tail risk is a direct confrontation around Gulf shipping or U.S. forces.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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