Possible scenario
Managed Strategic Defiance
45% Chance
Moscow and Tehran translate the alliance language into more intelligence sharing, payment workarounds and diplomatic coordination at the UN, but avoid steps that would trigger a direct U.S. military response. Trump increases rhetoric and sanctions designations, while Russia signals it will not abandon Iran but also will not guarantee a war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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