Possible scenario
Narrow Democratic Edge
25% Chance
Democrats remain favored, but the lead softens as Republican voters consolidate and undecided voters break more evenly. The House still leans Democratic, while the Senate is more likely to remain Republican.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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