Possible scenario
Late Republican Tightening
20% Chance
Republican turnout improves after party messaging shifts to inflation, immigration, and crime. Democrats still have a national edge, but the polling path becomes more volatile and the probability of a GOP House hold rises.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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