Possible scenario
Democratic House Wave
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the current polling advantage persists into late October and gives Democrats a clear House popular-vote edge. President Trump's weak approval and large movement among low-income voters make a midterm backlash the baseline, though Senate control remains harder because of the map.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.