Possible scenario
Bond Market Repricing
28% Chance
Investors demand higher compensation for absorbing large U.S. Treasury issuance and China's continuing fiscal expansion. This scenario does not require a sovereign crisis; it reflects a moderate term-premium repricing after years of high deficits and rising debt-service costs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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