Possible scenario
Ukraine Retaliates
25% Chance
Kyiv concludes that Moscow is exploiting the diesel deal while continuing attacks on civilians and energy infrastructure. Ukraine resumes or expands drone strikes on Russian refineries, depots, and Black Sea logistics nodes, putting the fuel arrangement under pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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