Possible scenario
Sanctions Backlash Builds
20% Chance
The civilian death toll creates political pressure in Washington and Brussels to restrict any arrangement that benefits Moscow. The backlash does not necessarily kill the diesel deal, but it raises legal and compliance uncertainty for traders, shippers, insurers, and refiners.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
- VLO+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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