Possible scenario
Vance Consolidates Nomination
48% Chance
Vance uses overwhelming MAGA approval to become the default Republican successor to Donald Trump. Party elites, conservative media, and grassroots organizations increasingly treat him as the 2028 front-runner.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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