Possible scenario
Succession Fight Reopens
18% Chance
Despite Vance's MAGA approval, other Republicans conclude that the post-Trump coalition is not fully locked down. Donors, governors, and conservative media figures probe whether Vance can be challenged from the right or the governing-experience lane.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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