Possible scenario
MAGA Strength Backfires
22% Chance
Vance's dominance among MAGA Republicans becomes a liability with independents and suburban voters. Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans portray him as a continuation of Trump's most polarizing instincts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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