Possible scenario
Export Controls Tighten
27% Chance
U.S. officials use Anthropic's China ban as a precedent for tighter AI-model access controls. The likely result is a compliance-heavy regime affecting frontier AI labs, cloud providers, and enterprise API distribution, rather than a blanket market-disrupting ban.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.4%
- AMZN-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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