Possible scenario
Russia Circumvents Measures
25% Chance
Russia is likely to preserve a large share of export revenue by rerouting trade through non-EU intermediaries, renaming vessels and using alternative payment channels. The sanctions still raise costs, but the immediate market effect is diluted by established evasion networks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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