Possible scenario
Enforcement Tightens Gradually
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Brussels implements the 1,646 new designations with tighter customs, maritime insurance and banking enforcement, but without an immediate rupture in energy flows. Russia faces higher transaction costs while EU markets largely treat the package as an extension of an existing sanctions regime.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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