Possible scenario
Energy Disruption Risk
20% Chance
A more disruptive outcome is that the new package materially constrains parts of Russia's oil logistics network, especially if insurers, ports and flag registries move quickly. This would lift crude prices and pressure energy-importing sectors, though the immediate move remains below crisis levels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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