Possible scenario
Term Premium View Prevails
35% Chance
Markets largely accept John Williams's argument that the rise in bond yields is not mainly an inflation signal. Investors focus on Treasury supply, fiscal deficits, and term premium rather than a sharper Fed reaction function.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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