Possible scenario
Regulatory Scrutiny Escalates
25% Chance
The SEC, FASB and potentially European regulators examine whether AI guarantees should be consolidated or disclosed more prominently. This would not necessarily stop AI spending, but it would increase legal, accounting and capital-market friction for hyperscalers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.9%
- Telecommunications -0.5%
- Utilities -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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