Possible scenario
Ratings Agencies Accommodate
35% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Moody's, S&P and Fitch treat the guarantees as contingent obligations rather than debt-like liabilities, while requiring clearer disclosure. Big Tech avoids immediate rating pressure because Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Alphabet still generate large free cash flow and hold substantial liquidity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.4%
- Technology +0.4%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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