Possible scenario
Talks Face Backlash
15% Chance
The meeting triggers legal, congressional, and Venezuelan opposition criticism over the U.S. decision to work with Rodriguez after Maduro's capture. The diplomatic channel survives, but sanctions relief becomes slower and more politically costly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Tickers
- -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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