Possible scenario
Normalization Advances
45% Chance
The New York meeting becomes the public opening for a broader U.S.-Venezuela normalization process. Washington keeps Delcy Rodriguez as its preferred interlocutor and uses oil access, migration cooperation, and political guarantees as the main bargaining tracks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
Tickers
- +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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